Modelling Pollution in London

When policy makers in organisations such as the Greater London Authority, the Mayor's Office and Transport for London want to test the effect of policy scenarios on air quality in the capital, they need detailed and accurate modelling. King’s modelling team has been key in providing this type of service, with unparalleled experience in the application of emissions inventories and air quality models for policy development in London. King’s highly flexible emissions model, the London Emissions Toolkit (LET), and air quality model, the London Air Quality Toolkit (LAQT), have both been used in many policy appraisals, including the following:

• The Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ)
• The Olympic Route Network (ORN)
• The Low Emissions Zone (LEZ)
• The Mayor’s Air Quality Strategy (MAQS)
• The Congestion Charging Scheme (CCS) and Western Extension Zone (WEZ)
• Lethal and illegal: Solving London’s air pollution crisis
• Up in the Air: How to solve London’s air quality: Part 2 (2016)

One of the other pieces of work the team is regularly commissioned to undertake is the aviation and road transport components of the London Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (LAEI). This provides estimates of emissions of various pollutants, including NOx, NO2, PM10, PM2.5 and CO2, for a base year, with projections back and forward to other years. The modelling team also produces the air quality modelling for the LAEI; the maps below illustrate future-year predictions of annual mean NO2 concentration in London compared to a base year of 2013.